Monday, December 11, 2017

Financials: Stocks are mixed while crude & the dollar are steady. Bitcoin debuted last night under the symbol “XBT” and traded as high as $18,850 before pulling back to 17,700. Two temporary trading halts have occurred so far on just under 3k caks. The NYPD confirmed an explosion occurred this AM near the Port Authority. One person is in custody. The Fed is meeting this week and is expected to increase rates on Wednesday afternoon. NAFTA talks started back up on Saturday. Goldman Sachs said it expects President Trump will ultimately announce his intention to exit from the accord and that fresh tensions will probably emerge at the next full negotiating round in January. In other trade news, the WTO ministerial conference is underway in Buenos Aires. Putin has arrived in Syria to meet with President Assad. The Iraqi PM declared victory over ISIS this weekend. The Saudi gov’t said movie theatres will open across the kingdom next year for the first time in over 35yrs. A spokesman for ED&F said the company is not taking new physical grain positions and may partially or fully exit the business. Their physical grains business employees ~40 people globally. Monsanto said it will give cash back to US farmers who buy use XtendiMax with VaporGrip (dicamba). "We believe cash-back incentives for using XtendiMax with VaporGrip Technology better enable growers to use a management system that represents the next level of weed control," said Ryan Rubischko, Monsanto product manager. XtendiMax costs about $11 per acre to buy, and Monsanto is offering $6 per acre in cash back to farmers when they apply it on Xtend soybeans along with other approved herbicides, according to the company.

Corn: Overnight volume of 22k and OI -2k. Argy rains forecasted in the 6 - 15 day. USDA report out Tuesday with only minor adjustments expected in both the world and US balance sheet. US etoh may be adjusted higher but all other demand classes expected to remain steady. Market will pay more attention to CONAB's report Tuesday AM for Brazil production indications. COT - funds continued to cover shorts while commercials saw additional farmer mvmt.

Beans: Forecasted rains in 6-10 day outlook causing some light profit taking this AM. Overnight vol of 34k and OI +1k. Funds have a combined B/SBM/SBO long of 131K contracts, the largest long since last March. Funds added a weekly record 18k longs to SBM. Expect cash markets to be quiet and little farmer selling if futures stay lower. The REAL is up .4% to start the week. Safras est Brazil farmers have sold 27% of the crop they just planted, vs 33% avg. Ag Rural raised their Brazil crop est to 112.9 vs 108 USDA. Oil share is at 33.6%.

Wheat: Both Chi & KC made new contract lows overnight. In Nov, Russia exported 5mmt of grain with wheat acct for 3.93, up 1mmt from LY. Jan thru Oct wheat exports are 24.5mmt vs. 19.9mmt LY.

T-Storm: Widespread and heavy rains are needed across Argentina. Some t-storms dot southwest Argentina Tue.-Wed., but most hold until this weekend forward when a series of storm systems pass and likely produce near-normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Slightly wetter: 1.00” to 2.00” also affects the aforementioned area from next Tue. forward (Dec. 19-25). S Brazil and Paraguay remain dry over the next 5 to 7 days, then turn wetter from early next week fwd when a series of cool fronts approach and dissipate.