Morning Grain Comments Friday May 25th 2018

 

CORN: Corn market is slightly higher after yesterday's pull back. Open interest was up almost

26k contracts yesterday (up over 50k for the week). The jump in the O.I. this time was in the

Sept contract (was in the March contract earlier this week). Tonight's Commitment of Traders

report should show the funds long near 225k contracts. Wheat continues to move higher and

drag corn with it. Rains across the Northern Midwest continue to hamper the last of the corn

plantings. Traders will watching closely on Tuesday afternoon to see how many acres are left

to go in MN, SD, WI and MI. French corn planting is 94% complete now. China sold just 1.24

mmt of corn from state reserves yesterday ($5.64 a bu), which was just 31% of the amount

of corn offered. US Cattle on Feed report is out this afternoon with trade guess of 11.535 mln

head or 104.9% of a year ago On-Feed May 1. Gains might be limited today as traders are

aware of corn's tendency to be lower the Tuesday after Memorial Day weekend. NOTE US

MARKETS ARE CLOSED MONDAY and re-open Monday night at 7 PM CST.

 

SOY-COMPLEX: Soybeans and soymeal are higher this morning with traders expecting to see

some soybean export announcements at 8 a.m. to China. These were the cargoes bought by

Sinograin for China's State reserves. Other Chinese crushers though continue to book

cheaper/better quality soybeans out of Brazil. US Commerce Sec arrives in China on Sunday

for a week of trade talks. Soy oil under pressure this morning with lower crude oil prices

(down almost $2 a barrel on talk of S. Arabia to increase output) and Malaysian palm oil

seeing its largest price drop in 7 weeks on disappoint export sales. The Brazilian trucker strike

supposedly is suspended for 15 days after a deal with the govt but not all trucking groups

agreed and still are striking. Look for consolidating trade with stiff resistance in July beans

from $10.40-10.50.

 

WHEAT: Wheat is higher as estimates on the size of the Russian wheat crop work lower.

Private firm IKAR lowered their Russian wheat number from 73-80 mmt down to 69.5-77.5

mmt. Some other private estimates are coming in under 70 mmt as dryness continues while

their Spring wheat areas struggle to get planted. French soft wheat is 79% G/E vs 76% a year

ago. 90s to almost 100 degrees forecast for parts of KS this weekend, which is not needed.

Export news out of the US is quiet.