Morning Grain Comments Thursday November 15th, 2018


SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans and products are higher after China has sent a written response to

the US demands for trade reforms.  The US had said it would not start negotiations until they

had a concrete reply from China.  So now negotiations can at least begin and traders are hopeful

then a resolution is possible.  US farmer selling is light with many waiting to see if there is a

resolution soon. NOPA crush report is out with avg trade guess of 170 mln bu vs 164.2 mln last

October.  Range on estimates is 165-178 mln bu. Resistance for January soybeans back toward

$9.00 board now.  A reminder US weekly export sales are out tomorrow. India's Oct vegoil

imports were up 8% vs year ago at 1.3 mmt. 


CORN: Corn is higher following the rally in soybeans and wheat on the China/US negotiation

news .  Open interest in corn did jump another 6k contracts yesterday.  Weekly EIA report this

morning is expected to show slowing ethanol production with bleeding red margins. Ukraine's ag

minister notes their 2018 grain harvest could reach a record 68 mmt and grain exports for

2018/19 could be a record 47 mmt (of which 27 mmt to be corn).  USDA currently has

Ukraine coarse grain exports at 42 mmt.  Ukraine has shipped 4 mmt of corn  so far vs 2.2

mmt in the same period last year.  This will give US corn exports strong competition in to next

spring and summer.


WHEAT:  Wheat is higher this morning with Saudi Arabia tendering for 475k tons of option

origin wheat with offers due by Friday night.  The tender is for Jan-Mar shipment and must be

12.5% protein.  Japan booked 120k tons of wheat in their normal weekly tender (US share

was 36k WW, 13.8k DNS 14.0% protein. Other news is light this morning.  Russian Ag

Minister raised their production estimate on grain/wheat to 110 mmt, up 1 mmt from their last

number.  Watch out for headline news risk today.