Morning Grain Comments Thursday November 15th, 2018
SOY-COMPLEX: Soybeans and products are higher after China has sent a written response to
the US demands for trade reforms. The US had said it would not start negotiations until they
had a concrete reply from China. So now negotiations can at least begin and traders are hopeful
then a resolution is possible. US farmer selling is light with many waiting to see if there is a
resolution soon. NOPA crush report is out with avg trade guess of 170 mln bu vs 164.2 mln last
October. Range on estimates is 165-178 mln bu. Resistance for January soybeans back toward
$9.00 board now. A reminder US weekly export sales are out tomorrow. India's Oct vegoil
imports were up 8% vs year ago at 1.3 mmt.
CORN: Corn is higher following the rally in soybeans and wheat on the China/US negotiation
news . Open interest in corn did jump another 6k contracts yesterday. Weekly EIA report this
morning is expected to show slowing ethanol production with bleeding red margins. Ukraine's ag
minister notes their 2018 grain harvest could reach a record 68 mmt and grain exports for
2018/19 could be a record 47 mmt (of which 27 mmt to be corn). USDA currently has
Ukraine coarse grain exports at 42 mmt. Ukraine has shipped 4 mmt of corn so far vs 2.2
mmt in the same period last year. This will give US corn exports strong competition in to next
spring and summer.
WHEAT: Wheat is higher this morning with Saudi Arabia tendering for 475k tons of option
origin wheat with offers due by Friday night. The tender is for Jan-Mar shipment and must be
12.5% protein. Japan booked 120k tons of wheat in their normal weekly tender (US share
was 36k WW, 13.8k DNS 14.0% protein. Other news is light this morning. Russian Ag
Minister raised their production estimate on grain/wheat to 110 mmt, up 1 mmt from their last
number. Watch out for headline news risk today.