Morning Grain Comments Friday August 17th 2018

 

CORN: Corn market is higher following the rally in wheat, friendly short term technicals and

traders bracing for next week's Pro Farmer tour. Dec corn could test resistance toward $3.90.

This afternoon's Commitment of Traders report is expected to show the funds were short near

50k contracts of corn yet as of Tuesday night. Weather maps are still generally non-threatening

at this point. Export shipment pace for US corn remains strong off both PNW and Gulf. Interior

basis levels are steady to mixed with last week's futures break choking off famer movement but

a rebound back to old highs should trigger cleanup of old crop sales. The early maturity of the

corn crop has producers realizing harvest is coming faster than expected and many of them

expecting to hold soybeans on farm given current prices. Look for drifting higher trade.

 

WHEAT: Wheat is higher overnight as algo trading systems picked up newswires that Russian

Ag Ministry met with exporters and reportedly indicated once exports reached 30 mmt the govt

might consider "curbing" exports. Now Russian govt officials say they did not discuss curbs...but

exporters are certainly getting the hint from the govt not to be too aggressive on exports. Since

July 1, Russian grain exports are up 46% from last year at 6.8 mmt. European wheat futures

are sharply higher this morning. Look for continued headline risk today.

 

SOY-COMPLEX: Soybeans are slightly lower in choppy trading session. Weather maps

remains generally favorable for the Midwest with more rain chances into next week. No fresh

news regarding the Chinese delegation coming to the US later this month. Interior Soymeal

meal futures are testing the upper level of the recent channel of Sept meal. Look for soy-

complex to take a back seat to wheat and corn today.