Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - October 15, 2021

CORN: Corn is bouncing overnight but finding resistance at $5.25 in CZ.  Rains slowing harvest a bit in parts of the ECB while WCB is able to keep running.  Another chance of rain is seen next Wednesday in the Midwest.  Weekly US export sales were toward upper end of the range, with Mexico the largest buyer.  In other news Ukraine corn harvest is now 22% complete with almost 7 mmt taken in. French corn harvest though is running slow yet with corn harvest at 15% complete vs 62% last year and 10 days behind the 5 year avg.  Argentine corn plantings are now 23% complete.
 
WHEAT:  Wheat is higher this morning with European prices surging again overnight.  US weekly export sales were larger than expected.  The Philippines, Mexico and Taiwan were the largest buyers.  Russia will be increasing wheat export taxes for next week.  Interesting to note their export tax on corn also increasing from 2 weeks ago.  Chinese govt will be auctioning off 1.0 mmt of wheat from reserves next week in an effort to cool interior wheat prices.  Rising wheat prices there is causing Chinese feed mills to switch back to corn. Argentine wheat areas are rated 46% G/E, up 2% from last week according to BAGE.  P/VP was rated 23%, down 3% from a week ago.  Look for firmer trade today.
 
SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans are higher with soy oil up for 3rd session in a row.  Malaysian palm oil was up almost 2% overnight. Soymeal export sales were bigger than expected with cuador, Canada and the Philippines the largest buyer of meal. Soybean sales were in the range of estimates with China, Mexico and Egypt the main buyers.  Cash crush margins continue to improve allowing processors to secure grind for Nov/Dec.  NOPA will update their Sept crush today with avg trade guess of 155 mln bu and a range of 148-162.8 mln (year ago Sept was 161.5 ln bu).   In other news, India's Gujarat govt will now give a minimum price support for soybeans as plantings increase there.  Currently the minimum is set at just over $14.00 a bushel as this state is the 5th largest soybean producer in India.  Resistance for January soybeans today at $12.25-12.30 with pick up in farmer selling expected above there.