MARKET COMMENTARIES

Morning Comments/Ryan's (ATI)

Morning Grain Comments June 16, 2021

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
 
HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS— CN, +2 ¼; SN; -10 ½; WN, +1 ¼; KWN, unch.  Dalian; SU, +11; CU, -3 ½; SMU, -$3.37; BOU, +$.0002; POU, +$.0019
  • What caught Larry’s eye: Brazil soybean exports last week were 2.6 MMT and below the 3.0 MMT implied figure from a year ago.  SBM shipments on the other hand at 433 K were 8% greater than the implied 2020 weekly number 
  • Global markets are mixed as they await the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting
    • Asia:  Lower:  Nikkei, -0.51%; Shanghai, -1.07%; Hang Seng, -0.70%
    • EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +0.12%; FTSE, +0.19%; CAC, +0.27% 
    • WALL STREET: Pre-markets are mixed-- DOW futures, -22; S&P, +0.5; NAS, +17.25
    • EXTERNALS: July crude, +$0.08 @ $72.20; Gold: +$3.10 @ $1,860; Sep $ Index, +.013 @ 90.515
  • Weather: Isolated showers are forecast through Sat. across western areas of the U.S. Midwest.  Above normal temperatures are projected through Friday, followed by near to above normal readings on Sat.  Mostly dry conditions are forecast today for eastern areas of the Midwest, followed by isolated showers through Sat.  Temperatures are projected to be near to below normal through Thu., followed by near to above normal readings on Fri.-Sat.
  • CN, up $.0225 @ $6.6975; CZ, dn $.0050 @ $5.7325.  Fund selling continued with 30 K sold on Tuesday        
  • SN, dn $.1050 @ $14.5525; SX, dn $.1625 @ $13.5725.  Funds: sold 10 SB, 4 SM, 6 BO. BRD crush: $0.75, -1 (N/N); LY, $0.74
  • WN, up $.0125 @ $6.6275; WU, up $.01 @ $6.67.  Fund selling on Tuesday again totaled 8 K   
CORN/SORGHUM
  • ATI Research: Bias on U.S. corn exports over the next month is decreased by 5 mbu to 65-75 mbu per week 
  • Consultant: 2020/21 Brazil corn crop estimate is unchanged this week to 92.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias.  Harvest has begun in the largest safrinha (double crop) corn producing state of Mato Grosso, & early yields are highly variable
  • Weather: Isolated showers forecast through Thu. on corn in southern Brazil, followed by scattered showers Fri.-Sat.; temps to be near to below normal.  Mostly dry weather with above normal temps forecast into Sat. in northern Brazil
 
  •  
  • ATI Research: Bias on U.S. soybean exports over the next month is unchanged at 7-14 mbu per week
  • Consultant: Brazil 20/21 soybean crop est. is unchanged at 134.0 MMT; neutral to higher bias going forward
  • ATI Research: Bias on U.S. wheat exports over the next month is increased to 15-20 mbu per week
  • Weather: Isolated showers are forecast through Thu. across HRS wheat of the U.S. Northern Plains.  Temperatures are projected to be above to well above normal today, followed by near to above normal readings Thu.-Sat.
ENERGY
  • Mixed: CLN21, +$0.08 @ $72.20; EBQ, +$0.10 @ $74.09; EBQ-QCLQ, +.02; RBN, -.0072; NGN, -.034; HON, -.0108
  • EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -3.3 (-8.5); Gasoline -0.6 (+2.9); Distillates +0.2 (+2.0).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.063 mbpd (range: 1.050-1.077).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.149 mb (range: 19.850-20.500)
  • Chicago ethanol was $.0165 lower at $2.3575.  Basis, mostly weaker: NYC, +$.0065 @ +$.0875; Gulf, -$.0060 @ +$.0575; Dallas, -$.00350 @ -$.0175; Tampa, +$.0135 @ +$.0675; LA, -$.0035 @ +$.2975
  • Ethanol RINs, lower: 2019’s, -12.50 @ 148 -165; 2020’s, -12.50 @ 148 -165; 2021’s, -14.00 @ 145-162                                                                                                                                                                                                   
  • The July RBOB/June ethanol spread is off $.0053 firmer at -$.2048/gallon   
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN
 


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