Morning Comments/Ryan's (ATI)

Morning Grain Comments April 9, 2021

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
 
HIGHLIGHTS

• USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT
• TRENDS— CK, + ¼; SK, -3 ¾; WK, +4; KWK, +5 ¼  
• What caught Larry’s eye: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange trimmed their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop back by 1 MMT, to 43, 4 ½ million below the last USDA forecast.  A key focus today will be what the USDA does with both S AM corn and bean #s
• Global equity markets are mixed; bond yields creep higher; China reports stronger than expected inflation
  • Asia:  Mostly weaker: Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, -0.92%; Hang Seng, -1.07%
  • EUROPE:  Mostly firm:  DAX, +0.14%; FTSE, -0.06%; CAC, +0.34% 
  • WALL STREET: DOW futures, +71; S&P, +3.5; NAS, -28.25
  • EXTERNALS: June crude, +$0.10 @ $59.73; Gold: -$14.00 @ $1,744; Sep $ Index, +.226 @ 92.280

• T-storm Weather®: Pockets of rain focus on U.S. Corn Belt & mid-South through Sat.  Temps gradually turn cooler, but then turn much cooler Mon.-Tue. as a lobe of Arctic air drops southward & leaves much of next week slightly to moderately cooler than normal.  Precip focuses along southern edge of coolness, bringing at least some rain to HRW wheat in Plains & crops in mid-South
• CK, up $.0025 @ $5.80; CN, up $.01 @ $5.63.  The funds bought 12 K ahead of today’s S&D report
• SK, dn $.0275 @ $14.1250; SN, dn $.03 @ $14.0675.  Funds: Bot 3 SB, 2 SBM, sold 5 BO. Board crush: $0.67, -6 (K/K); LY, $0.94
• WK, up $.04 @ $6.3275; WN, up $.0350 @ $6.34.  Fund buying on Thursday totaled 6 K, dryness in the north/higher corn prices                                   

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout, 1.379 bbu (range 1.200-1.550) & 1.502 in March
• USDA Supply/Demand: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop, 108.3 MMT (109.0 in March); Argentina corn, 46.7 MMT (47.5)
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, some rain dots corn in Mato Grosso over the next few days, but outside of a few thunderstorms in southern areas along a cool front early next week, ~75% of second-crop corn stays dry
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange: Argentina’s 2020/21 corn crop is 30% Excellent/Good vs. 27% last week & 33% last year

 
SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout, 0.118 bbu (range 0.105-0.135) & 0.120 in March
• USDA Supply/Demand: Avg. trade est. Brazil soybean crop, 134.2 MMT (134.0 in March); Argentina, 46.7 MMT (47.5)
• ATI Research: In what is probably the first real sign of a slow-down in demand in response to higher prices, U.S. domestic soybean meal use in February was off 15% from January and 2% below February 2020
• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout, 0.846 bbu (range 0.827-0.877) & 0.836 in March
• T-storm Weather®: Some rain focuses on / near spring wheat through next week in the eastern Dakotas and Manitoba as a chilly period unfolds in the U.S. and Canada, but substantial rains that would end drought do not fall

ENERGY

• Weaker: CLM21, +$0.10 @ $59.73; EBM, -$0.09 @ $63.11; EBM-CMK, -.16; RBM, -.0004; NGM, -.003; HOM, -.0036
• Chicago ethanol was $.03875 higher at $1.96625. Basis, mostly firm: NYC, -$.00375 @ $.07625; Gulf, +$.00125 @ +$.09875; Dallas, +$.01125 @ +$.12875; Tampa, +$.01625 @ +$.21375; LA, +$.02125 @ +$.33375
• Ethanol RINs, steady: 2019’s, @ 131 -134; 2020’s, @ 132-134; 2021’s, @ 132-134                                                                                                                                                                                             
• The May RBOB/Apr ethanol spread is off $.0346 at $.0100 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       

• Choice boxed beef increased $4.19 on Thursday to $270.50, and is $20.53 higher compared to a week ago   
• Additional light cash cattle trade occurred on Thursday at $123 in Nebraska, which is $4.00 higher vs. a week ago
• Mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.18 on Thu. to $109.16, but is still $1.60 higher compared to last week
• Lean Hog Index was $0.47 higher on Thursday to $100.94.  April futures firmed $0.77 and are $2.535 above the index                  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
 


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