March 8, 2018
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher after the White House appears to be softening its position ontrade tariffs, even before an executive order is signed by President Donald Trump. Yesterday an advisor to President Trump said Mexico and Canada would be initially excluded from the proposed tariffs.
The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits increased last week from the lowest level since 1969.
Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 231,000 in the week ended March 3, when economists expected 220,000 new claims.
In spite of the recent correction, I am not seeing the beginning of any new long term bear market for stock index futures.
The euro currency advanced when the European Central Bank dropped a long standing promise at its policy meeting today to increase bond purchases if needed. This is viewed as a small step towards taking the euro zone economy off its extended stimulus program.
However, these gains were given back when ECB President Mario Draghi at his press conference made comments that were slightly dovish on balance.
German factory order declined 3.9% in January, but were still up 8.2% on the year.
I continue to expect the double top resistance at the 1.2579 area in the March euro currency to be taken out.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The probability of a fed funds rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committees March 21 policy meeting is 86%, which is unchanged from yesterday.
The main trend for the entire interest rate futures complex is lower.
The thirty year Treasury bond futures are likely to breakout to the downside from the triangle congestion pattern.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
March 18 S&P 500
Support 2715.00 Resistance 2745.00
March 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 89.320 Resistance 89.680
March 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.23620 Resistance 1.24660
March 18 Japanese Yen
Support .94140 Resistance .94570
March 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .77110 Resistance .77830
March 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7785 Resistance .7839
June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 142^28 Resistance 143^20
April 18 Gold
Support 1321.0Resistance 1335.0
May 18 Copper
Support 3.0800 Resistance 3.1400
April 18 Crude Oil
Support 60.71 Resistance 61.76
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