Top Farmer Closing Commentary 9-20-19

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: A lack of new news and an extended warm forecast pressured prices late in the session as futures lost 2 to 3 cents. Dec closed 2 lower at 3.70-3/4, and next Dec 3 lower at 4.02. For the wee, Dec corn gained 2 cents, somewhat of a victory considering a bullish key reversal last week was not met with weaker prices this week. Harvest is getting underway and yield results, while preliminary, are mixed. Some producers are getting better than expected yields while others are finding significant variability between, and even within, fields and generally a lower yield by 10% to 20%. This will likely be the story for this season. Roughly 1 to 2 bil bu of corn is late and a normal frost could have impact. In the very near term we see good weather from a temperature perspective over the next 10 days. It will, however, be very wet and this is beginning to be a growing concern that saturated soils and weak corn stalks could make for less than ideal conditions. On a positive note, export sales were strong this week and last week’s bullish key reversal continues to look encouraging.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures had a strong week last week last but gave back 16-3/4 cents with most of that coming today with Nov futures closing down 10-1/4 at 8.82-3/4. The 9.00 area held as resistance this week as futures on Monday traded as high as 9.04-3/4, but closed at 9.00 even. Today’s slide below the 150-day moving average, as well as the 10-day, would suggest the market may be running into technical weakness and harvest pressure could mount in teh days and weeks ahead. We will circle back to the idea that if behind on cash sales, get current with recommendations. If not short futures, we would suggest going short next week to catch up with recommendations, but also use the close at 9.00 as an exit strategy.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat futures ended the week on a soft note losing 3-3/4 cents in Dec Chi closing at 4.84-1/4, as compared to last Friday’s close at 4.88-1/2. The weekly hook reversal in Chi could be looked at somewhat negatively. Yet, the 10-day moving average held, as did the 40-day, and we would argue this week was nothing more than a consolidation week. KC wheat lost 2 to 3 cents and spring wheat gained 3 to 4 cents as continued woos with harvest exist as wet conditions are keeping the remainder of U.S. spring wheat from being rapidly harvest. Delays in Canada are also being noted. Could this lead to yield loss? Perhaps. As far as the world is concerned, however, ample inventories are the problem for wheat prices i the U.S., as well as the dollar which moved just slightly higher today posting a somewhat impressive reversal. Less than ideal wording from the administration on relations with China late in the week may have weighed on nprices today.

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Cattle markets had a mixed to mostly lower end to the week with Oct lives down 45 cents to 99.35, Dec lives were down 67 cents to 105.15, and Feb lives were down 45 cents to 112.07. Sep feeders were up 37 cents to 140.32, Oct feeders were up 27 cents to 139.20, and Nov feeders were down 22 cents to 137.02. Choice beef values were up 91 cents at yesterday’s close to 69.02 and were up another 1.44 today to 70.46. Average dressed steer weights for the week ending September 7 were reported at 893 ponds, up from 884 last week and down .33% from a year ago. The 5-year average weekly weight for that week is 898.6 pounds. Most of the price action today was choppy and quiet as traders focused on position taking ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report. Placements were seen at 91% vs expectations of 94.1%, marketings are seen at 98% vs expectations of 98.3%, and on feed was seen as 99% vs 99.3%. This is the first year over year drop in on feed supplies since the December 2016 Cattle on Feed report. Current cash bid are listed between 101.00 and 102.00, 1.00 to 2.00 higher than last week.

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS: Hog markets had a choppy session today with Oct down 1.52 to 61.40, Dec hogs are up 15 cents to 67.95, and Feb hogs are up 22 cents to 75.05. The CME lean hog index was down 73 cents to 56.76. Carcass values were down 10 cents at yesterday’s close to 68.11, but were up 2 cents this morning to 68.13. U.S./China trade negotiations are apparently making progress which is supportive, especially given that trade issues have apparently been separated from the stickier national security issues. A trade deal with China has potential to increase U.S. pork sales to China extremely quickly. U.S. pork export sales for the week ending September 12 were reported this morning at 14,200 tons vs the previous 4-week average of 21,598 tons. Cumulative sales for the year are up 14.8% from last year and are currently pegged at 1.12 mil tons. The best traded Dec lean hog contract briefly tested its 200-day moving average resistance level today, but was unable to close above it. Dec hogs were able to close above their 50-day moving average level for the fifth session in a row.

Market Commentary provided by:

Total Farm Marketing
137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
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