Morning Comments/Liz (ATI)

Morning Grain Comments for January 21, 2022

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
 
HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—CH, -$.0150; SH, -$0.05; WH, -$.0525; KWH, -$.0325. 
• What caught Larry’s eye:  Sizable increase in China’s soybean crush last week, up almost 30% to 1.89 MMT, reversing 4 weeks of declines as more beans arrived and processors ramped up production of SBM and SBO ahead of the Spring Festival

• Weather: Isolated to scattered showers and near normal temperatures are forecast through Mon. in Córdoba, Santa Fe & northern Buenos Aires, Argentina.  Isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures are forecast through Mon. in northern Brazil states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul & southern Goiás.  Isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures are forecast through Mon. in southern Brazil states of Rio Grande do Sul & Paraná
• CH, -$.0150 @ $6.0950; CK, -$.0225 @ $6.0850.  Fund activity Thursday indicated just as many buyer as sellers  
• SH, -$.05 @ $14.2075; SK, -$.0475 @ $14.2975.  Funds:  Bot 8 SB, 2 SBM, 9 SBO. BRD crush: $1.48, -6 (H/H); LY, $.72
• WH, -$.0525 @ $7.85; WK, -$.05 @ $7.8850.  The funds sold 2 K on some profit-taking after the recent sizable rally       

 
CORN/SORGHUM

• Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 20 – 39 mbu for 21/22 corn
• Consultant: Farmers in central Mato Grosso, Brazil have started to plant safrinha (double crop) corn after soybeans are harvested.  There is a financial incentive to plant as much safrinha corn as possible
• Ethanol grind: 1,053,000 barrel/day week ending Jan. 14—up 4.7% v. last week, up 11.4% v. 2021 and up 0.4% v. 2020
• There are ideas that Brazil’s exportable corn surplus may be dwindling.  This week’s corn vessel line-up fell 31 to 51 mbu but is still 21 million larger than in the year-ago period

 
SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 22 – 44 mbu for 21/22 soybeans; 100 – 300 K MT for 21/22 soymeal; and 0 - 15 K MT for 21/22 soyoil
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thu. pegged Excellent/Good soybean ratings at 30% compared to 31% a week ago
• Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 6 - 15 mbu for 21/22 wheat
• Wheat area across Canada’s southwestern Prairies continues to miss badly needed precip; drought still very serious

 
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       

• Choice boxed beef firmed $1.38 on Thu. to $292.98, and is up $10.12 versus the previous week
• Fri. USDA Cattle on Feed report est.: Jan. 1 on feed, 99.8%; Placed in Dec., 102.5%; Marketed in Dec., 100.8%
• Mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.06 on Thu. to $89.89, and is $3.76 lower compared to a week ago
• Lean Hog Index declined $0.06 on Thu. to $76.79.  February futures soared $2.625 and are $8.135 above the index

 
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Dow Jones, AP, DTN

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