Morning Comments/Liz (ATI)

Morning Grain Comments September 17, 2021

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
 
HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—CZ, -1 ½; SX, -8 ¾; WZ, +1/2; KWZ, -1/2  
• What caught Larry’s eye: China’s weekly crush rose 7 ½% LW to 1.86 MMT.  This was nearly 6% below the year ago figure with the 4-week average of 1.9 MMT per week running 5% less than in 2020.  USDA forecast is for a 4 MMT/4+% annual gain

• Weather: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast on Fri. in the western U.S. Midwest, then mostly dry Sat.-Sun.  Temps are projected to be above to well above normal through Sun.  Isolated showers are forecast on Fri.-Sat. in the eastern Midwest, then mostly dry on Sun.  Temps projected to be above normal through Sun.  Isolated showers forecast on Fri. in the Central & Southern Plains, then mostly dry on Sat.-Sun.  Temps projected to be above to well above normal through Sun.
• CZ, -$.0150 @ $5.28; CH, -$.0125 @ $5.3550.  Harvest pressure and favorable weather outlook weighed on values, funds sold 2 K
• SX, -$.0875 @ $12.8725; SF, -$.0925 @ $12.9550.  Funds: Even SB; sold 6 SBO, bot 4 SBM.  BRD crush: $0.78, -8 (X/V); LY, $0.82
• WZ, +$.0050 @ $7.1350; WH, +$.0025 @ $7.2425.  The funds were even in Thursday’s trade despite more lower world crop #s    

 
CORN/SORGHUM

• Updated NWS forecast for October is for above normal precip forecast in OH, MI, WI & most of MN.  An equal chance of above or below normal rain is projected for the remainder of the Corn Belt, except for dry conditions in KS and CO
• ATI Research: U.S. export sales of corn in the latest week were anemic at just 9.7 mbu vs. 20-39 expected.  Key questions regarding the level of exports during Sept-Nov will be how soon and how much corn does China need
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday pegged 2021/22 Argentina corn production at a record 55.0 MMT

 
SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Updated NWS forecast for October is for above normal precip forecast in OH, MI, WI & most of MN.  An equal chance of above or below normal rain is projected for the remainder of the Corn Belt, except for dry conditions in KS and CO
• ATI Research: With unshipped U.S. soybean meal sales (combined old-crop and new-crop) at a record high and Board crush near $0.90, a pretty active fall meal export program is likely
• ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. SRW wheat export sales are 28 mbu, a 7-year high and 38% above the 5-year average
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday pegged 2021/22 Argentina wheat production at 19.2 MMT   

 
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.82 on Thursday to $318.00, and is $14.58 lower versus the previous week
• Since Aug. 23, choice boxed beef has declined $30.03 (8.6%), and is at the lowest level since Aug. 12
• Mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.69 on Thu. to $104.87, but is still dn $3.16 compared to a week ago
• Lean Hog Index eased $0.90 on Thu. to $94.45.  October futures soared $3.200 but remain $8.975 below the index                            

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN
 


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