Morning Comments/Liz (ATI)

Morning Grain Comments September 17, 2021

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
  • TRENDS—CZ, -1 ½; SX, -8 ¾; WZ, +1/2; KWZ, -1/2  
  • What caught Larry’s eye: China’s weekly crush rose 7 ½% LW to 1.86 MMT.  This was nearly 6% below the year ago figure with the 4-week average of 1.9 MMT per week running 5% less than in 2020.  USDA forecast is for a 4 MMT/4+% annual gain
  • Weather: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast on Fri. in the western U.S. Midwest, then mostly dry Sat.-Sun.  Temps are projected to be above to well above normal through Sun.  Isolated showers are forecast on Fri.-Sat. in the eastern Midwest, then mostly dry on Sun.  Temps projected to be above normal through Sun.  Isolated showers forecast on Fri. in the Central & Southern Plains, then mostly dry on Sat.-Sun.  Temps projected to be above to well above normal through Sun.
  • CZ, -$.0150 @ $5.28; CH, -$.0125 @ $5.3550.  Harvest pressure and favorable weather outlook weighed on values, funds sold 2 K
  • SX, -$.0875 @ $12.8725; SF, -$.0925 @ $12.9550.  Funds: Even SB; sold 6 SBO, bot 4 SBM.  BRD crush: $0.78, -8 (X/V); LY, $0.82
  • WZ, +$.0050 @ $7.1350; WH, +$.0025 @ $7.2425.  The funds were even in Thursday’s trade despite more lower world crop #s    
  • Updated NWS forecast for October is for above normal precip forecast in OH, MI, WI & most of MN.  An equal chance of above or below normal rain is projected for the remainder of the Corn Belt, except for dry conditions in KS and CO
  • ATI Research: With unshipped U.S. soybean meal sales (combined old-crop and new-crop) at a record high and Board crush near $0.90, a pretty active fall meal export program is likely
  • ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. SRW wheat export sales are 28 mbu, a 7-year high and 38% above the 5-year average
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday pegged 2021/22 Argentina wheat production at 19.2 MMT   
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                        Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN

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