Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - Aug. 4th, 2025

Corn

The corn market closed lower again today, making new contract lows with CU down 2 ½ cents to $3.87 and CZ down 3 ¾ cents to $4.07. Corn export inspections this morning were a bit disappointing at 47.5 mbu compared to trade estimates of 43-59 mbu but still above the 36.1 mbu needed. Mexico made up nearly half of the corn total at 22.5 mbu. Corn CIF market was mostly quiet with a majority of the activity coming from southern terminals as harvest begins to pick up in parts of MS and AR, early yield reports are impressive. Sept IWDS Fob values are steady at 19 cents below DVE. Barge freight is mostly steady, March IL River trades 450 on uptick in JFM corn sales to river locations. CU/Z firmed 1 ¼ cents to -20 cent carry, 80% of FC is 22.6 cents. Eastern rail values continue to have a steady/weaker tone, especially in new crop slots. Corn crop conditions were unchanged this week at 73% G/E and still up 6% from this time last year. Notably, IL and IA conditions were down 2% on the week while delta/midsouth states saw modest improvements. Corn used for ethanol in June was slightly below estimates at 448 mbu. Crude oil lower again today after OPEC raised output. 5-day forecast is calling for less rain in the Midwest, but the 6-10 day is calling for above average temps/precipitation once again. 

Beans

The soy complex was firmer to start the week as recent selling pressure has slowed now that we’ve entered August. SQ up to 969, SU up 5’6 to 975’2 and SX closed 5’2 better to 994’4. Sept meal was $6.10/ton better to $277 and Oct-forward bean oil was 4+ pts better, Oct BO closing at 53.98 cts/lb despite crude being down over $1/bbl. Weekly export loadings reported at 22.5mbu for beans with destinations scattered equally to everywhere but China: SE Asia taking 8.6mbu, EU in for 4.4mbu, Egypt 4.2mbu and West Hemi lifting nearly 5mbu. Current MY beans exports of 1.79bbu vs USDA forecast of 1.865 include updated Census data. South American basis levels continue to firm as China continues to source beans for their crushing program which has been running above 60% for most of the summer. The spot market is seeing the CFR premium to China firm above $3/bu on the offer side, narrowing the gap to US beans and keeping US hopes for bean sales to China alive, even with possible tariff costs added in as last week beans traded to Taiwan off the PNW equivalent to +95x. 5 more receipts were stopped by LDC (totaling 736 now). SQ-spreads narrowed 1’4 to 2 cts, and little change to cash beans on the river today with a nominal +94q still 18cts light of DVE. Some new crop bean barges were reportedly loaded in SE Ark as harvest has begun for some. N/C US Gulf premiums continue at levels cheap enough to price in sales to China with tariffs included, but with the focus from them on procuring SAm beans, other destinations should see premiums cheap enough to source US beans. 

Wheat

Wheat futures closed mixed to start the week. For nearby, MWU led at + ¾ with MWU6 +1 ½. WU was unch with WN6 + ¼. KWU settled -1 ¾ with KWN6 – ½. The USD’s continued weakening has not been able to generate much support for wheat as of late. Export inspections of 22.0 mbu were at the upper end of expectations and ahead of the 16.1 mbu needed weekly pace. By class, HRW led the way at 11.4 mbu with HRS at 5.5, SRW at 2.5, Soft white at 1.9, and Durum at 800kbu. Philippines, Japan, Nigeria, and MX were the 2 mbu plus takers. Based on the afternoon crop condition reports, ATI’s spring wheat model was essentially unchanged. Cash trade for HRW remains quiet and spreads reflect this with the U/H complex -1c on the day. U/Z at -20 ½ is good return to space but is still just in the 60’s percent of full carry.