Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - April 23 2024

CORN: Corn is slightly lower this morning in consolidating trade.  US corn planting pace at 12% is slightly ahead of the 5-year avg of 10%.  Brief dry window this week will allow progress before the next rain system moves in this weekend.  US farmer selling did increase in pockets where cash prices reached $4.70-4.75.  In other news Algeria tenders for 120k tons of corn May shipment. Look for mixed trade with increased farmer selling seen vs CK at $4.45.  

WHEAT: US Wheat is higher this morning after US winter wheat conditions fell 5 points to 50% driven by declines in KS, TX and OK while SRW conditions did improve.  GFS weather model shows very little rainfall for the western 1/3rd of KS through May 9th now.  Trade also keeping eye on drier weather pattern for parts of eastern Ukraine, Turkey, and southern Russia.  US spring wheat moving along at 15% planted vs 5 yr. avg of 10%.  In export news Jordan passed on its tender for 120k and will try again next week.  Taiwan tenders for 107k tons of US wheat for June/July ship (mix of DNS, HRW and SWW).  Algeria tenders for 50k tons of durum.  After the 4 sessions rally the market is due for a pullback/ correction.  Support in KWN at $6.00-5.90.

SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans are slightly lower in 2-sided trade this morning.  US soybean planting pace of 8% is ahead of the 5-year avg of 4%.  Argentine soybean harvest trying to catch up to avg after recent wet weather.  China continues to book Brazilian soybean cargoes while Iran reportedly booked 60k tons of S. American soymeal while Algeria tenders for 70k tons of soymeal for LH May ship.  Hearing softer tone in export in meal values with Argentine crushing pace to pick up in coming days/weeks.  Interior US soybean basis holding strong at the processors with pushes for May slot as US farmer will be busy in the fields.  Look for choppy sideways trade with SK resistance at $11.72-11.75 while support at $11.30.  Nov beans continues to struggle from $11.80-12.00.