Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - June 24,  2022

July Options expire at the close today.  First notice day is June 30th for July deliveries.

CORN:  Corn market is seeing a bounce after losing over $1.00 a bushel the last 4 sessions.  Open interest in corn was down
25k contracts and soybeans down 12k contracts as technical selling hit the market.  Weather maps indicating a return of
ridging late next week though the maps differ where the high pressure ridge sets up.   Volatile trade in interior cash markets
with July/Sept inverse hitting over +84 yesterday before plunging back to +70 overnight.  A number of ethanol plants rolled
cash bids to the Sept and drop basis 50-70 cents bu in the roll as they attempt to flush out elevator bushels (most producers
holding tight until we get through pollination).  Yesterday's Iowa Layer report showing numbers down 28% from year ago
(Iowa is normally #1 in the nation for egg layers followed by Ohio).  This morning's weekly export sale report was better than
expected at 26.5 mln bu on old crop.  S. Korea tendering for option origin corn for Sept arrival.  Argentine corn harvest now
42% complete with yields running 111.5 bpa hence BAGE holding their production at 49 mmt.  Look for corn to stabilize with
some end user coverage in front of next weeks June Stocks and Plantings report. 

WHEAT:  Wheat prices are slight higher on a dead cat bounce into the weekend.  KC July wheat trying to hold $10 support
while WN bounced off $9.25 support.  Open interest in Chicago wheat up 1k contracts as funds add shorts.  Oklahoma wheat
harvest is now over 75% complete and KS wheat harvest also moving along (though eastern KS being slowed by some rains).  
French wheat harvest is off early start at 2% complete vs 0% avg.  European wheat values seeing a rebound overnight.  US 
weekly export sales number on wheat a little better than expected, see table.  Nothing new on the Ukraine/Russia situation. 
Look for consolidation today with July options expiring.  

SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans are higher in consolidation after Nov beans fell $1.50 a bushel in the last 5 sessions.  For now SX is
holding $14 support.  It's been a wild ride down this short trading week with Malaysia palm oil futures also down 15%  for the
week.  US weekly export sales were neutral on soybeans and disappointing on soymeal.  Soybean basis at the processors has
softer tone with July/Aug inverse still trading in the 80's.  July/Aug meal inverse still above $20 a ton.  Export news is quiet for
now as China sold less than 5% of the 500k tons of state reserves auctioned this week (and are to try and auction another
500k tons next week).  Look for consolidation/firmer trade with energies and equities also trying to bounce into the weekend.