MARKET COMMENTARIES

Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - September 17, 2021


 
CORN: Corn is slightly lower this morning  as it consolidates its recent gains heading into the weekend.  S. Korea booked another 66k ton cargo for Oct 20-Nov 20 arrival from ADM, option origin (likely Black Sea).  Weather maps indicate last part of Sept will hotter/drier than normal and going to bring harvest on quickly.  Would expect to see nearby spot inverses to keep sliding.  Yield reports remain varied at this point.  Would expect to mostly softer trade today though large ethanol margins and end users still here to buy breaks
 
WHEAT:  Wheat is steady to firmer in choppy trade overnight.  The wheat market looks to consolidate recent gains the last 4 sessions.  S. Korea booked 81,700 tons of Australian wheat for Feb/Mar shipment as Southeast Asian countries look forward to another bumper Australian wheat crop.  Russian wheat export taxes are expected to decline.  Ukraine govt confirms the 2021 wheat crop was 33 mmt (where the USDA is now) with avg yield of 69.1 bpa.  Last year's drought/short crop was less than 26 mmt.  Look for choppy trade today going into the weekend.
 
SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans are lower this morning with US soybean harvest expected to pick up speed in the Midwest/Dakotas over the 2 weeks as weather maps continue to run on the hot/dry side.  Early bean yields have been solid or better than expected.  Appears those rains in parts of Midwest in August were beneficial.  World veg oil prices were softer overnight with
palm oil futures down for the 3rd week in a row.  Nov soybeans are trying to hold support at $12.85 but a push below there opens the door back toward $12.60 and then $12.40.  The US farmer is expected to be steady seller of soybeans off the combine this fall if prices can hold above $12.00 cash.  October soymeal remains stuck in a $335-$345 trading range.