Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - April 24th, 2025

Corn

CK -3'6 at 472'0, CK/N +0'2 at -7'2, CN/U +0'4 at 33'6, CU/Z -1'0 at -9'0, and CZ/H -0'2 at -14'0. Weather will dictate, but forecast shows more open weather for field activity/planting in ECB than in WCB/Delta down into S plains, which has rain in fcst. N IL overnight caught .25 -1" rain while S half IL generally missed rains and continues to dry out. Given the speed of planting and likely more than 12% planted that USDA stated as of last Sunday, naturally not seeing the prevent plant concern for 2025. The 8/14 wea fcst is warm and below normal across much of the Midwest. Exports were down sharply as the pre-tariff pull from Canada was over and they came off 62kbpd from last week to only 75 kbpd, those should slowly rebound in coming weeks and months barring any more tariff surprises. 

Beans

Bean futures traded mostly in the green today, settling in the middle of their 12c trading range. SK has settled in a 13c trading range for the last 8 sessions! SK +5.25c, SMK -$1.1, BOK +.33. SK closed over its 200MA of $10.392. Cash markets helped support futures with cif trading up to 81, which was yest offer side. That took IWDS basis up to within 2c (up 4c) of May DVE, which supported the calendar spreads. Subsequently, cif pulled back and traded at 80, after export biz was covered. Trade talk had N Africa buying a few more cargoes for LH May. 

Wheat

HRW dn 8, SRW dn 7 and HRS dn 3 – 4. The market will be watching for rain totals over the next 48-hrs across NE/KS. These rains will be critical as the 6-10 & 8-14 reverts to AN temps and normal to BN precip. And of course, this rain event can have a big impact on new crop HRW spread carry. There has been some chatter of abandoning acres in the Colby area due to poor stands.