Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - January 21, 2022

CORN:  Corn is slightly lower with good rains moving through Argentina overnight and for next 5-6 days.  Weather maps are wetter for southern Brazil in the 11-15 day period.  Argentina is 88% planted on corn, 5% behind last year as farmers were waiting for moisture to finish planting.  BAGE estimates 22% of the Arg corn crop at G/E, 41% avg and 37% poor. Trade will be watching for confirmation on the export chatter yesterday of corn and soybeans to China.  Weekly export sales were better than expected with Japan and Mexico the largest buyers.  Sorghum sales were a marketing year high at over 477k tons (China).  CIF corn values continue to firm.  Cold weather continues to hamper logistics....barge, rail and truck.  US farmer selling turning quiet when futures market backs off.  Support for March futures toward $6.00. 
 
SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans are lower along with soymeal in consolidation trade after the fund buying yesterday.  Soy oil is higher again as it follows palm oil with palm oil prices hitting a record high and up for the 5th week in a row.  CBOT open interest jumped over 17k contracts on soybeans while soy oil was up almost 8k contracts.  Trade watching for confirmation of recent Chinese buying of US soybeans.  Weekly US export sales on soybeans in the range but toward the low side.  Meal sales bigger than expected with Central American countries and Canada the main buyers.  Soy oil sales also bigger than expected with S. Korea the largest buyer of 13k tons.  Weather maps have good rains across Argentina the next 5 days while southern Brazil maps turn wetter in the 11-15 day period.  Argentina soybean planting is now 95% complete according to BAGE vs 99% normal.  They rate 30% of the bean crop as good/excellent, 43% avg and 27% P/VP. Feb options expire at the close today. 
 
WHEAT:  Wheat is slightly lower this morning in Europe and US markets overnight.  US weekly export sales was in the range of estimates.  Wires report Iran is thought to have bought 195,000 tons of milling wheat so far in their tender.  S. Korea booked 82k tons of US milling wheat this week for March shipment off the PNW (Cargill reportedly the seller).  Traders keeping eye on US weather maps as GFS model pulls the rain out for western KS in the extended maps.  Drought in southern Plains, western Dakotas/Montana, and areas of Canada remain overriding concern.  Look for more consolidation today with an eye on outside markets and Russia/Ukraine updates.