Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - May 21st, 2025

Corn

CN +6’4 at 461’4, CN/U -1’0 at 18’2, CU/Z +0’4 at -12’6, CZ/H unc at -14’4. Flat price felt supported from trade negotiations that may ultimately favor US corn as an origin. CIF & IL freight back to zone 3 for July penciling 2 under DVE, and IL river terminal payables reflective of same. Eastern etoh plant summer basis values increased again trying to keep corn from leaving the region, up a few more cents again, and the eastern demand rail pull continues eating into midsouth, IL river terminal and central processor draw areas. UP Group 3 bids up 3 nearby and +1 into summer from yest. While we are not fully planted in Midsouth/S IL/ S IN, recent rains across Midwest/N Plains have been generous, improving crop conditions this week. The Eastern cornbelt really needs to catch some dry weather to get planted. Winter corn crop estimates in Brazil seen trending higher. EIA weekly supply and demand for ethanol showed a 43 kbpd rebound to 1036 kbpd, a tic above expectations. US etoh exports came off 20 kbpd to 94kbpd. 

Beans

Macro market support along with higher corn futures, lent support to bean complex. Weather is not ideal for remaining beans that need to get into the ground, but extended forecasts are dry/cool, so not really a market concern yet. SN5 looks positive on the charts if it can hold the 100-day at $10.48. But today’s close was 20c below last week’s highs, so farmer activity was still pretty light today. Cash markets seem content to finish out the month. Cif/Freight kept IWDS basis steady at 9c below July DVE. New crop cash bids back over $10 in some areas, which may entice a small round of farmer selling. SX/F at -12 pays 2c/mo over money costs, which at this point seems a bit like kissin’ your sister. 

Wheat

HRW up 5, HRS up 6 ½ and SRW up 3 – 4. Overall support from the export market, record fund short, technicals and some interpretation there are areas in the world where weather conditions aren’t great. Argentina announced it will extend the wheat export tax cut until March 31, 2026. China reportedly starting harvest and running 1 – 2 weeks early, with a smaller crop expected. KC scales were steady except for 13.2% up 10 and 13.4% up 2. TX Gulf 11% JJ 95/110 and 11.5% 100/115. Continue to suggest scaling out hedges between KU, KZ and KH. Lots of chatter about how much deliverable space there is to fill with the new locations coming online vs KU25. HRS had 11 singles for sale with basis mostly steady for 14% at +240MN, while 15% exploded higher trading at +400MN up $1.15!