Morning Comments/Roy's (RJ O'Brien)

Morning Grain Comments - June 17 2024


CORN:  Corn is lower on follow through technical selling and weather forecasts that keep the WCB well-watered, but models differ about the ECB.  The Euro model keeps ECB hot/dry while the GFS model does bring 1-2 inches of rain across the ECB by the end of June.  As for crop ratings this afternoon, some are looking for steady G/E while others look for 1–2-point drop. Brazilian corn harvest of the safrinha crop is moving along ahead of normal pace with the dry weather.  Nationally Safras pegs corn harvest at 9% complete vs 6% on avg.  AgRural estimates the harvest at 21% complete vs 5% last year at this time.  US farmer selling dried up with the futures market pulling back the last 3 days.  End users appear to have June coverage done but still open on July needs in the Midwest.  US farmers now likely to wait and see what the June 28th Stocks and All Plantings report brings before giving up on additional old crop sales.  Weekly export inspection number at 10 am CST should show continued strong loadings pace.  Technically not much support in July corn until $4.40 and in Dec corn at %4.60-4.58.  Funds maintaining their short of over 200k contracts of corn. 


WHEAT: Wheat market is sharply lower as US winter wheat harvest rolls in KS and OK while SRW moves north into the Ohio River valley.  Yields continue to run large on HRW with good TW and protein levels (mostly in the 11's and 12s).  Ukraine wheat/corn areas saw some needed rainfall over the weekend.  Export news is light so far this morning.  Friday's CFTC report showed the funds added back shorts in KC wheat.  


SOY-COMPLEX:  Soybeans and products are lower this morning as funds add shorts in soybeans and soy oil while cutting longs in their soymeal according to Friday's CFTC report.  Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not ideal but funds are not concerned about the wetter than normal weather in the upper Midwest at this point.  US soybean G/E ratings should be steady to down 1 point this afternoon.  The NOPA Crush is out today with estimates at 178.35 mln bu for the month of May (range 171.35-187.6 mln bu).  April NOPA crush was 169.4 mln bu and year ago May NOPA crush was 177.9 mln bu.  Some processors have been dealing with operational issues and so grind rates are not as big as traders/analysts expected 6 months ago.  Soybean export demand remains muted.  Next support for SN toward $11.50-11.40 and in SX toward $11.25-11.00. Support for SMN at $360 and then $358.50.